2 years since the referendum result
An easy In or OUT referendum, but as the problems of UK’s exit from the EU become apparent, was it doomed years ago due to stuffing its empirical problems under the union jack rug for a later date.
In 2015 The conservatives with the help of UKIP as promised in election mandates quickly pushed for an IN/OUT referendum that no one wanted or had much talked about other than a few eurosceptics (as explained in CASE 476 Brexit (part 1). The government were even against leaving the EU and when the referendum date was set, the same people, the government and media were really positive and persuading everyone to stay in the EU and it looked like most were against leaving. After the country voted to leave 52% to 48% on the 23rd June 2016, David Cameron resigned having made the referendum, promising to keep the UK in the EU and then failed to do so. Which led to Theresa May being appointed Prime minister, who moved to call a snap general election and which she only won the parliamentary majority by being propped up by the DUP. She then later triggered article 50 and the EU withdrawal act with the support of parliament starting a some what brutal 2 year negotiation period between the UK and the EU, but more so between parliament, the people, their families and co-workers who live and work in the UK. This led to many clashes, arguments, misinformation from both sides and a silent run down of the clock from the government as one fact after another surfaced from all sources as to the implications of what happens when the UK leaves the EU not to mention the different scenarios such as May’s deal, No deal, no Brexit or restarting it all and having a 2nd referendum. On March 29th 2019 the UK still intend to leave the European union with May’s proposed deal or a no deal. The Government’s stance has always been that it wants to avoid a no deal, but with a draft deal that has been incredibly divisive, resulting in resignations and strong take-downs from across the political parties, ministers have been preparing for leaving the EU without any deal whatsoever. Political differences on the terms of leaving have been rife for months and hardcore Brexiteers in Conservative ranks have repeatedly said a no-deal Brexit would be better than a soft Brexit.
What is a ‘no deal’ Brexit?
A “no deal” Brexit does what it says on the tin. It means the UK and the EU has been unable to reach a withdrawal agreement and it will be the default position. If this is the case, it means there will be no 21-month transition period. Consequently consumers, businesses and public bodies would have to respond immediately to changes as result of leaving the EU. “On 29 March at 23:00 the UK would leave the EU and everything associated with that would come to an end,” according to Dr Simon Usherwood, a reader in politics at the University of Surrey. “[A no deal] doesn’t stop the UK leaving but it means there is absolutely no clarity about what happens.” While it is a possibility, in reality neither the UK nor the EU would favour a no deal because it signals a poor political relationship, he adds. One of the key issues with a no deal scenario is the uncertainty it would lead to for life and work in Britain. The UK would instantly revert to World trade organisation rules, which would mean we would have to set and accept tariff prices the same for every country in the world and we would have to set them at the maximum amount the EU set their tarrifs in order to create a trade deal with them and over time we can only lower or remove these tariffs creating competition or lowering prices.
The Brexit result in 2016 which caused a massive shockwave across the world on the stock market, towards international business and many other problems internally could be blamed on many factors and theories such as: It was all old people who went out to vote and the young didn’t bother, or it was the poor voting for the populist vote against the rich establishment, the right seeking sovereignty, the left wanting to remain in the EU or even the big cities who have attracted more EU funding over the years verses the Port towns, Northern powerhouse and rest of England who feel they have been somewhat left out of the EU’s great project, but I’m certain the reason it happened, the result, the massive divide straight down the middle of the UK that the result caused and where the government has got so far with negotiations, the problems it has faced and will continue to face as a nation outside the EU is all down to not dealing with its entwined and confusing imperialistic past.
Brexit’s root problems stem from not dealing with the British empire’s imperialistic past
In 1919 when The empire of Great Britain and Ireland was at its peak and had just won world war 1, countries such as Ireland, India and others followed in trying to shed their imperialistic rulers of the British by means of internal war or overthrowing the people in control of their territory. India was drastically split into 4 states, which culminated in years of political and religious wars, tensions and displacement of millions of people which still poses and international threat but has no ties to Great Britain and Ireland. Ireland had the war of independence which finished in 1921 ending the 300 year British rule over Ireland, but also partitioned it into 2 countries and this is where the ‘root problems’ of ‘Brexit’ came from and proceeded to build up for over a century. By 1927 the Anglo-Irish treaty had been signed, the Irish free state had been created and the empire was called the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland a new country which had a majority unionist government refused the ‘home rule act’ imposed by the British and wanted to stay apart of the British empire. For 30 years, economically and culturally Northern Ireland was segregated into 2 peoples, that gave more opportunities and share of the countries budget to the protestant communities which caused and added many problems as well as a declining poor functioning economy subsidised by the Westminster government. As the situation escalated, the British government imposed ‘direct rule’ in 1972. Paramilitary groups, both republican and loyalist, became increasingly deadly. The bombings, shootings and sectarian brutality of Northern Ireland's Troubles were to last for decades. Over 3,600 people, most of them civilians, died. The violence spread to the British mainland in acts of terrorism never seen before and now being televised.
Paramilitary ceasefires and years of gruelling bargaining culminated in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement which brought peace. The deal addressed differences over national identities in Northern Ireland, as well as the relationship with Dublin, which gave up its constitutional claim to Northern Ireland. It set up a power-sharing mechanism and restored devolved government through the Northern Ireland Assembly. Voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic backed the deal in referendums, it was heralded as a great achievement and brought lots of growth and investment to a thriving new Irish republic economy but left a stagnant economy in the North, this is where the term ‘kicking the can down the road’ comes into play. 100 years ago in 1919 and 21 years ago in 1998 the British held onto Northern Ireland and the unionist population of about 900,000 have stood strong and held onto the belief that they are British people living on the Island of Ireland, the 900,000 and growing population of Irish catholics living in Northern Ireland still firmly believe it is their territory even though the government of the Irish republic doesn’t. So its a very complex and ever changing situation that in reality is still “at a stalemate” and this stalemate is one of the last remaining problems the British empire created, this can also be similarly applied to the Gibraltar/Spain situation but these are two very different circumstances.
Northern Ireland has always existed on the political, economic and cultural periphery of the UK, rather than being an integral component of Britain’s understanding of its own self-interest or self-image. So the Idea of Great Britain leaving the EU (Brexit) was that all of the UK was to take back control of many aspects of control such as immigration, trade, agriculture, fishing and others, but as the EU has grown around Great Britain and Northern Ireland, its laws, regulations and policies has outgrown the UK and intwined into everyones lives which has made the situation of leaving the EU more difficult due to the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland having to change under EU laws and possibly bringing up the old days of the troubles with a border wall which no body wants, and as the SNP and Scotland calls for a 2nd independence referendum which the British government will try to avoid at all costs in the coming weeks, it will bring a whole new set of problems to the surface for Great Britain and Northern Ireland. If Scotland votes yes to leave the UK a massive constitutional crisis will erupt culminating in Northern Ireland possibly being cut off further and an immediate suspension of the ‘acts of union’, the British parliament and could be an immediate implementation of an English and Welsh parliament. Giving Northern Ireland 3 possible choices to choose between as an Irish border poll referendum will be offered on both sides of the border.
1. It continues to be a dysfunctional territory governed by England and Wales
2. It becomes an independent country backed by gold reserves and bank loans
3. It ceases to exist, unifying with the rest of the republic of Ireland